by Patrick Zier | Sep 4, 2025 |
Chase Briscoe is killing it. Since early May, Briscoe, not Denny Hamlin, not Kyle Larson or anybody else you care to name, has been the best driver in NASCAR.
Over that period, Briscoe has dominated the Old Guy Sport competition index, which measures competitiveness on all tracks except superspeedways (Atlanta, Daytona, Talladega) because you can’t measure competitiveness on those tracks.
Avoiding the big wreck and being at the right place at the right time on the last lap determines who wins and how you finish at those places.
Meanwhile Briscoe, in his first year in an elite car, has pushed everybody else aside including his teammates at Joe Gibbs Racing. Nobody expected this, and Gibbs, in fact, was criticized for picking Briscoe out of the rubble of Stewart-Haas Racing when that organization finally collapsed last year and he needed somebody to replace Martin Truex.
But Gibbs has been vindicated. Briscoe started to muscle his way to the top after the race at Kansas, where he finished fourth. Expectations for him were high all along because he was driving for one of the two best teams in NASCAR, but until that race he was struggling driving a car that could do things he never dreamed of doing with Stewart-Haas.
“Kansas was like the light switch,” James Small, Briscoe’s crew chief, commented on NASCAR’s website after last week’s win at Darlington. That victory made Briscoe the first driver to advance to the round of 12 in the playoffs.
“I really think that’s when things started coming together and him understanding it,” Small said. “I think just within the team, with Chase himself and everything, I think it was the final stage at Kansas,” Small said.
According to the OGS competition index, ever since then Briscoe has been running away from everybody else. Counting Kansas, Briscoe has two wins, three seconds, one third, one fourth and one fifth over the 14 race period and has led laps under green in four other races, meaning he has been blanked in only two.
That totals up to a whooping 343 points on the OGS competition index, far more than anybody else except maybe Shane van Gisbergen, who has 295. But van Gisbergen got all of his points with four straight road course wins. He has yet to score a single point on an oval. Hamlin, with 254 points, almost one hundred fewer than Briscoe, is third and William Byron, with 187, is fourth.
That it took Briscoe a while to settle in is understandable. Briscoe has always known what he had to do to win in a race car, he just never had a car capable of doing it until he got to Gibbs. So it took him a while to realize things were different now.
Briscoe is a guy who has always had to prove himself, beginning when he was a youngster and his dad didn’t really want him to race. The climb has been long and hard and mostly in inferior equipment, which kept the pressure on as Briscoe tried to stand out from the crowd.
But it’s made him mentally tough. Nothing was given to him. “I don’t know, I’ve always just loved being in high pressure situations,” Briscoe said. “I feel like I just perform better for whatever reason.
“I feel like my whole career has been a high pressure situation. There was no backup plan. You might only get one race, you’ve got to go perform, show your worth,” he continued. “I’ve always felt like every week I’m still auditioning to prove I belong here.”
“We went through a whole process of who’s going to replace Martin (Truex),” Gibbs remarked. “The way we do things at our race team, it’s everybody sitting around, all of our management group, and we go through a lot of discussions; who would fit best, who matches up with our sponsor.
“And certainly we felt like Chase matched up well with Bass Pro Shops,” Gibbs said. “It’s a big process. It’s very important because that’s a quarter of our race team. We got a lot of people depending on that.
“It becomes critical, those decisions, because we all know you’re not going anywhere unless you’re got a really, really good crew chief and a really, really good pit crew and a really, really good driver,” Gibbs said.
And Briscoe, as he has proven over the last few months, is a really, really good driver.
NASCAR NOTES
Three most likely winners at St. Louis: 1-Denny Hamlin, 2-Chase Briscoe, 3-Kyle Larson. Last year’s winner at St. Louis: Austin Cindric. Top five at St. Louis last year: 1-Cindric, 2-Hamlin, 3-Brad Keselowski, 4-Tyler Reddick, 5-Joey Logano.
Last week’s Darlington picks: 1-Hamlin, 2-Larson, 3-Ryan Blaney. Darlington winner: Briscoe. OGS sport season record after 22 races: 10-11, no pick in Pocono race.
OGS competition index top 10 after 22 races: 1-Hamlin 472, 2-Briscoe 403, 3-Larson 366, 4-William Byron 326, Christopher Bell 326, 6-Shane van Gisbergen 295, 7-Blaney 293, 8-Bubba Wallace 161, 9-Alex Bowman 158, 10-Chase Elliott 148.
OGS competition index top 10 on intermediate tracks (tracks most similar to St. Louis): 1-Hamlin 261, 2-Briscoe 232, 3-Larson 229, 4-Byron 186, 5-Blaney 119, 6-Wallace 118, 7-Ross Chastain 102, 8-Logano 79, 9-Reddick 73, 10-Bell 71.
by Patrick Zier | Sep 4, 2025 |
TAMPA – There’s no denying it. Florida has the toughest schedule in the country, and South Florida just made it tougher. For Florida, this wasn’t supposed to be a big game. LSU is a big game. Miami is a big game. Texas is a big game. Georgia is a big game. All are ranked in the top 10 in the country.
And then you have Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State. That last wasn’t supposed to be a big game, either, but after beating Alabama, the ‘Noles are ranked in the nation’s top 25, as are all the rest. USF, by the way, received votes after hammering Boise State.
So Florida knows it will have more on its hands than expected when it collides with USF Saturday in Gainesville.
One of the most interesting aspects of this game is the battle of the quarterbacks, Florida’s DJ Lagway and USF’s Byrum Brown. Both are coming off injuries that impacted their team’s season a year ago and both looked healthy and strong in their openers last week.
There is no question that from a physical and talent standpoint, Lagway is elite. Playing to his potential, he is probably as good as anybody in the country. But Brown is really not far behind. He can carry a team on his back. He’s a difference maker.
But USF has more going for it than just Brown. With Brown, the offense is potentially explosive and the defense appears to have taken a major jump forward.
“This is a team, not a one-quarterback show here,” Florida Coach Billy Napier commented according to Florida’s football website. “It’s going to be important to contain him (Brown). We’re going to have to rush as a team and work together to compress the pocket and keep him in the pocket,” he added.
For Napier, this is a potential “gotcha” game. He can’t lose this, not with the schedule that’s in front of him. There is tremendous pressure on Napier to produce an SEC contender after three years of mediocrity, become relevant again nationally, and a loss to USF would be potentially devastating.
Napier saved his job last year with a late season turn around that started with wins over 22nd ranked LSU and 18th ranked Ole Miss, a decisive victory over arch-rival Florida State and a bowl win over Tulane.
It continued when the Gators crushed Long Island U. in their opener this year, and Florida simply can’t afford to go off the rails against USF.
From a South Florida standpoint, this is another huge game, a chance for this team to continue to develop a winning attitude, to see if it can put the Boise win behind it and move on.
“It’s part of growing, it’s part of what we’re building, right?” USF Coach Alex Golesh said here this week. “It’s, and I said it a week ago, it’s part of handling success. Wining programs are able to do that because winning programs are used to winning,” Golesh said.
“I think in a winning program you truly forget about it (winning a big game) the next day and you move on. We’ve conveyed that to them (the players), we’ve pushed the heck out of doing that,” Golesh said.
“I think anytime you’ve got an opponent like we have if you’re looking behind in any way you’re out of your mind,” Golesh emphasized. “And truly, I think these guys are mature enough to handle that.
“All you’ve got to do is look up and see what’s in front of you,” Golesh continued. “If you’re going to take a breath and say this happened a week ago and I’m going to enjoy it you’re going to get your brains beat out. It helps that we’re playing a really good football team in terms of that and I think the guys are mature enough to handle it,” Golesh said.
In some ways, the Florida game will define USF’s season. You’re on the road in a hostile environment after a big win. Good teams move on. This is today. Forget yesterday, it doesn’t matter anymore.
The Bulls don’t have to beat Florida, but they must go in believing that they can. They have to believe in themselves, because if they collapse here, if they get knocked out, last week’s dominant win over Boise may look good, but it will mean nothing.
PAT’S PICKS
Florida over USF: The Gators are skating on thin ice here. If USF plays up to its potential, this could be a slugfest.
Miami over Bethune-Cookman: Why do teams even schedule games like this?
FSU over East Texas A&M: See Miami over B-C.
UCF over North Carolina A&T: This isn’t as bad as the other two, because UCF isn’t nearly as good as the other two, but it’s still a game that shouldn’t be played.
Last week, 2-3. For the season, 2-3,.400.
by Patrick Zier | Aug 29, 2025 |
The game was sluggish from the start, like two heavyweights trying to land punches with their feet stuck in cement.
South Florida had eked out a 10-7 halftime lead, but there was no indication that would stand up, not against a Boise State team which is considered the Alabama of the Group of Five, had just been in the College Football Playoffs and had everyone wondering how long it would take before it asserted its dominance.
Maybe now, midway through the third quarter with USF in a punting situation, fourth-and-6 at the Boise 45, the Broncos would take control. Out came the USF punt team. The ball was snapped and then something unexpected happened.
The punter was not the punter. Instead, it was freshman quarterback Locklan Hewlett, a player of much promise but not someone who figured prominently for the Bulls this year.
And Hewlett did not punt. Instead, he looked downfield, where USF’s Keyshaun Singleton had gotten behind the Boise defense and was streaking toward the end zone. Hewlett lofted the ball. Down the field it flew, into the waiting arms of Singleton, who grabbed it and took it in for a score.
And just like that, it was USF 17, Boise 7. On the sidelines, Byrum Brown knew. “As soon as he (Hewlett) threw it, I started running toward the (end) zone,” Brown said according to the USF football website. This was a game changer. It would wake up the dormant USF offense; Brown would wake up the dormant USF offense.
Brown would be the guy of whom Boise coach Spencer Danielson said “he will be one of the best football players we see all year, on either side of the ball. I’m not just talking about being one of the best quarterbacks we will see, he’s one of the best football players we will see during the 2025 season,” Danielson emphasized.
The fake punt was, no doubt, the biggest play of the game. It invigorated USF, gave it a fresh rush of adrenalin which woke up the offense and let it overwhelm Boise.
It could be the biggest play of the year if USF capitalizes on the opportunity it created. With the win, USF now has a legitimate path to the CFP; not an easy path, but a legitimate one no matter what happens against Florida and Miami.
And, if USF can pull that off, get to the playoffs, then it could arguably be the biggest play in USF history.
For the last two years under Coach Alex Golesh, USF has been a dormant volcano. There has been some smoke and fire, a lot of rumbling, enough going on to grab your attention while Golesh put his plan in place, but no real eruption.
He has stressed believing in the process, that this team’s ability to move up the football ladder depends not only in believing in themselves but believing in what they can do as a team, independent of the coaches’ urging. The players must lead, not the coaches. The coaches are there to guide the process and install the system.
“I’ve said it ad nauseam to our team, until it becomes player driven it will not break out and I felt like tonight (Thursday) it was truly player driven,” Golesh said.
“Ultimately, when you truly believe in each other you truly have a brotherhood which is really, really hard to do in college football right now,” Golesh said.
“You’re going to play for the guy next to you and you don’t want to let him down. They’ve (his players) bought into that, they’ve worked that way,” Golesh commented. “I thought we were physically ready, I thought we were mentally ready and we put it all together tonight (Thursday).”
“It’s a new standard, a new expectation (for this team),” Brown declared. “This ain’t the same old South Florida anymore.” Hey there up in Gainesville, you hear that?
by Patrick Zier | Aug 28, 2025 |
Boise State has been so good for so long nobody can remember when they were bad – if they ever were. Boise is the Alabama of the Group of Five, the conferences just a notch below the Power Four. If you beat Boise, you have to be really good or really lucky or maybe a little bit of both.
In what will be arguably the most important game South Florida has ever played, the Bulls are going to try and take down Boise in their opener in Tampa Thursday.
This is big. Win this, and you give yourself a chance to go all the way, and by all the way we mean you have a shot at the College Football Playoffs. There’s no guarantee, of course. You still have to beat Memphis. And Navy. And some think Florida Atlantic will be sneaky good. But you have a shot.
Because the highest ranked team from the Group of Five gets an automatic bid to the CFP, and if you beat Boise, you’re in position to be that team. Remember Boise, 11-1 during the regular season last year with only a 37-34 last minute loss to Oregon staining its record, was the Group of Five’s rep in 2024.
So, if you’re USF and you can somehow win this game, you jump start your chances even if you lose to Miami and Florida. But you have to finish, as USF Coach Alex Golesh likes to put it (Boise’s Spencer Danielson says the same thing about his team).
“They had six games going into the fourth quarter that were one score games,” Golesh said. “They know how to finish, and that’s what it takes to win.” Golesh says the Bulls, who have never been in this position before, will be ready. “We’re locked in to the task at hand,” Golesh said according to USF’s football website. “For us it’s a huge challenge, and what we have to do to be successful is play really, really good football.
“We have to play really hard for four quarters and I bring up that fourth quarter stat because this (Boise) is a team that is used to going into the fourth quarter and finishing football games.”
Indeed they are. But one interesting aspect to this game is that Boise State seems to view it as just as critical to its success as USF does, which shows the respect Danielson has for the Bulls.
“Who ever wins this game it’s not gonna be the team who has the most emotion, it’s going to be the team who executes,” Danielson declared according to Boise’s football website.
And both these coaches are big on “process.” Golesh has been all about that since the day he got here and if anything he stresses it more now. “We’re process driven and I’ve hammered that home,” he declared. “Our preparation is the same no matter who you’re playing.”
“We want to have the best process in the country,” Danielson said. “As a coach that’s what we control. To me, I want to make sure we’re preparing our players to be their best. I want to make sure they have everything they need to be successful.”
Besides sticking to the process and finishing in the fourth quarter, there is an X-factor in this game that could decide it, and that’s USF quarterback Byrum Brown. Going into this season, Brown has most definitely been underrated because of the injury plagued season he had in 2024.
But he’s not underrated by Danielson. “Their quarterback, No. 17, Brown, he will be one of the best football players we see all year on either side of the ball,” Danielson declared. “I’m not just talking about one of the best quarterbacks we’ll see, he’s one of the best football players we will see during the 2025 season.
“I have a ton of respect for him,” Danielson continued. “I’ve done a lot of research on him over the summertime, getting to know more about him. Man, I’ve got a lot of respect for the young man, his character, how he leads,” Danielson said.
“He gets a lot of credit for how he runs the ball – which he should. He can make every throw. He’s big and strong. He’s an NFL quarterback. We’ll see him play on Sundays here soon; he’s earned that,” Danielson commented.
“He’s a leader; how he speaks, he grabs your attention in his interviews. We’ve got our hands full with 17,” Danielson remarked.
And USF will have its hands full with Boise, which is why this game will be in the national spotlight. Upstart USF against been there, done that Boise State.
“The big thing for us is that we get to do it (play) on a national stage and that’s awesome for us as we continue to build our brand, our football program,” Golesh said. “It’s the next opportunity to put it on display.”
Indeed it is. Just don’t screw it up.
PAT’S PICKS: Boise over USF-USF has Brown, and he may be up to the task. But Boise has Power Four-type talent. They’re a proven commodity and used to playing – and winning – big games.
Florida over Long Island U-Are you kidding me?
Alabama over FSU-Look out for this one. This is not your father’s Alabama and Kalen DeBoer is definitely not Nick Saban and FSU is definitely better than last year. Maybe a lot better.
Notre Dame over Miami-Miami paid Carson Beck more than $4 million to come play for then. If Beck was that good Georgia would have kept him.
UCF over Jacksonville State-UCF was a disappointment in the Big 12 and Scott Frost was a disappointment at Nebraska (after leaving UCF) and if the Knights lose this one it will be more than a disappointment. It will be a disaster.
by Patrick Zier | Aug 25, 2025 |
Late Saturday, after his two-lap charge to the finish gave him the win in Daytona’s Coke Zero Sugar 400, Ryan Blaney was being compared to Dale Earnhardt as a superspeedway racer.
Now Blaney is a better driver then he is credited with, but comparing him to Earnhardt is like comparing Team Penske to the other two heavyweights in NASCAR, Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports. It can’t be done.
This despite the fact that Penske has won three straight NASCAR championships and could steal a fourth this year; all four of its drivers, Blaney, Joey Logano (who won in 2024), Austin Cindric and the Wood Brothers entry, Josh Berry, have qualified for the playoffs. The Wood Brothers have a technical alliance with Penske and are its defacto fourth car.
You have to say “steal” because NASCAR’s playoffs are not structured to determine a true champion. There are 16 drivers in the playoffs and 12 of them will be eliminated in the next nine events, leaving four to contend for the title in the last race at Phoenix.
Every three races, the four drivers with the lowest point totals get cut. The safest way to make sure you don’t get cut is to win one of the three races in each stage.
According to the Old Guy Sport competition index, there are five drivers who have separated themselves from the rest this year, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, William Byron and Christopher Bell.
And, if there were no playoff and the driver with the most points at the end of the season was declared the winner, one of those five would almost certainly take home the title.
Even using the NASCAR system, which rewards finishing races and not competing in them, Byron (1st), Larson (3rd), Bell (5th), Hamlin (6th) and Briscoe (8th) would be among the top contenders.
But that really doesn’t matter, because you don’t need to accumulate points to make the playoffs, all you have to do is win one race. That’s how Berry and Cindric made it, even though you can make a strong case that neither one belongs.
And that means Cindric, although he has never been competitive at the Cup level, could conceivably be the 2025 NASCAR champion. Admittedly he’s the longest of long shots; To advance he would likely have to win a race in each of the playoff’s three segments and then be the highest finisher among the final four at Phoenix, but the way the rules are he has a chance.
Cindric, though, has only won three races in his entire career, so the odds on him winning three in the last 10 this year are…well, you figure it out. Maybe a billion to one.
But it can be done, because Penske drivers have been doing it over the last couple years. That’s how they get their championships. “I think our focus is to control what we can control and try and get results on the table,” Jonathan Hassler, Penske’s president of NASCAR operations, commented after Blaney’s Daytona win according to NASCAR’s website.
“I certainly don’t feel like we have to come out and set the world on fire,” Hassler continued. “We’ve obviously got some playoff points in the bank, so we’ve kind of got to balance – it’s definitely a time of year where you’ve got to balance trying to be better with just getting base hits and moving on.”
That’s a strategy that seems to work for Penske, proving once again that under the NASCAR system, you don’t have to be the best to be the best.
PLAYOFF PICKS
First four out: Shane van Gisbergen-Only wins on road courses. There are no road courses in the first three playoff races. Josh Berry-The Wood Brothers are not competitive and he drives for the Wood Brothers. First Penske car out. Austin Dillon-Won at Richmond, which was basically the only time he’s been competitive all year. Austin Cindric-Another Penske driver who has never been competitive on any kind of track; well, he’s lucked out on superspeedways once in a while.
Second four out: Tyler Reddick-In a funk all year. Has had some success on road courses but hasn’t performed on ovals. Joey Logano-Once considered Penske’s top driver but at 35, he may have peaked. Still has a little juice on intermediate tracks, but only a little. Ross Chastain-The only place he’s run well is on intermediate tracks, not competitive anywhere else and has fallen off badly this summer. Chase Elliott-Once the leader in the Hendrick garage, has given way to Kyle Larson and William Byron. Has run decently on road courses but doesn’t seem as committed as he once was.
Last four out: Alex Bowman-Has always been the weak link at Hendrick. Hasn’t shown any real improvement this year; continues to struggle on ovals but Hendrick execs like him. Why? Kyle Larson-May be the most talented driver in the sport but he just hasn’t been the same since a miserable performance while running the Indy-Charlotte double. Christopher Bell-Bell made a big splash early and was arguably the most competitive driver in NASCAR through the early part of the season. Then he just disappeared.
And the champion is-Denny Hamlin. Beats out Ryan Blaney, Williams Byron and Chase Briscoe in the last race.
NASCAR NOTES
Most likely winners at Darlington: 1-Denny Hamlin, 2-Kyle Larson, 3-Ryan Blaney. Last year’s winner at Darlington (second race): Chase Briscoe. Top five in second race last year: 1-Briscoe, 2-Kyle Busch, 3-Christopher Bell, 4-Larson, 5-Ross Chastain.
Last week’s Old Guy Sport picks: No picks, race at Daytona. OGS does not count races at superspeedways (Daytona, Atlanta and Talladega) in its standings.
OGS competition index top 10 after 21 races: 1-Hamlin 470, 2-Larson 366, 3-Briscoe 328, 4-William Byron 326, Bell 326, 6-Shane van Gisbergen 295, 7-Blaney 293, 8-Bubba Wallace 160, 9-Alex Bowman 158, 10-Chase Elliott 147.
OGS competition index top 10 on intermediate tracks (tracks most like Darlington) 1-Hamlin 239, 2-Larson 229, 3-Blaney 199, 4-Byron 186, 5-Briscoe 157, 6-Wallace 117, 7-Chastain 102, 8-Logano 79, 9-Bell 71, 10-Bowman 64, Chris Buescher 64.
