by Patrick Zier | Aug 25, 2025 |
Late Saturday, after his two-lap charge to the finish gave him the win in Daytona’s Coke Zero Sugar 400, Ryan Blaney was being compared to Dale Earnhardt as a superspeedway racer.
Now Blaney is a better driver then he is credited with, but comparing him to Earnhardt is like comparing Team Penske to the other two heavyweights in NASCAR, Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports. It can’t be done.
This despite the fact that Penske has won three straight NASCAR championships and could steal a fourth this year; all four of its drivers, Blaney, Joey Logano (who won in 2024), Austin Cindric and the Wood Brothers entry, Josh Berry, have qualified for the playoffs. The Wood Brothers have a technical alliance with Penske and are its defacto fourth car.
You have to say “steal” because NASCAR’s playoffs are not structured to determine a true champion. There are 16 drivers in the playoffs and 12 of them will be eliminated in the next nine events, leaving four to contend for the title in the last race at Phoenix.
Every three races, the four drivers with the lowest point totals get cut. The safest way to make sure you don’t get cut is to win one of the three races in each stage.
According to the Old Guy Sport competition index, there are five drivers who have separated themselves from the rest this year, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, William Byron and Christopher Bell.
And, if there were no playoff and the driver with the most points at the end of the season was declared the winner, one of those five would almost certainly take home the title.
Even using the NASCAR system, which rewards finishing races and not competing in them, Byron (1st), Larson (3rd), Bell (5th), Hamlin (6th) and Briscoe (8th) would be among the top contenders.
But that really doesn’t matter, because you don’t need to accumulate points to make the playoffs, all you have to do is win one race. That’s how Berry and Cindric made it, even though you can make a strong case that neither one belongs.
And that means Cindric, although he has never been competitive at the Cup level, could conceivably be the 2025 NASCAR champion. Admittedly he’s the longest of long shots; To advance he would likely have to win a race in each of the playoff’s three segments and then be the highest finisher among the final four at Phoenix, but the way the rules are he has a chance.
Cindric, though, has only won three races in his entire career, so the odds on him winning three in the last 10 this year are…well, you figure it out. Maybe a billion to one.
But it can be done, because Penske drivers have been doing it over the last couple years. That’s how they get their championships. “I think our focus is to control what we can control and try and get results on the table,” Jonathan Hassler, Penske’s president of NASCAR operations, commented after Blaney’s Daytona win according to NASCAR’s website.
“I certainly don’t feel like we have to come out and set the world on fire,” Hassler continued. “We’ve obviously got some playoff points in the bank, so we’ve kind of got to balance – it’s definitely a time of year where you’ve got to balance trying to be better with just getting base hits and moving on.”
That’s a strategy that seems to work for Penske, proving once again that under the NASCAR system, you don’t have to be the best to be the best.
PLAYOFF PICKS
First four out: Shane van Gisbergen-Only wins on road courses. There are no road courses in the first three playoff races. Josh Berry-The Wood Brothers are not competitive and he drives for the Wood Brothers. First Penske car out. Austin Dillon-Won at Richmond, which was basically the only time he’s been competitive all year. Austin Cindric-Another Penske driver who has never been competitive on any kind of track; well, he’s lucked out on superspeedways once in a while.
Second four out: Tyler Reddick-In a funk all year. Has had some success on road courses but hasn’t performed on ovals. Joey Logano-Once considered Penske’s top driver but at 35, he may have peaked. Still has a little juice on intermediate tracks, but only a little. Ross Chastain-The only place he’s run well is on intermediate tracks, not competitive anywhere else and has fallen off badly this summer. Chase Elliott-Once the leader in the Hendrick garage, has given way to Kyle Larson and William Byron. Has run decently on road courses but doesn’t seem as committed as he once was.
Last four out: Alex Bowman-Has always been the weak link at Hendrick. Hasn’t shown any real improvement this year; continues to struggle on ovals but Hendrick execs like him. Why? Kyle Larson-May be the most talented driver in the sport but he just hasn’t been the same since a miserable performance while running the Indy-Charlotte double. Christopher Bell-Bell made a big splash early and was arguably the most competitive driver in NASCAR through the early part of the season. Then he just disappeared.
And the champion is-Denny Hamlin. Beats out Ryan Blaney, Williams Byron and Chase Briscoe in the last race.
NASCAR NOTES
Most likely winners at Darlington: 1-Denny Hamlin, 2-Kyle Larson, 3-Ryan Blaney. Last year’s winner at Darlington (second race): Chase Briscoe. Top five in second race last year: 1-Briscoe, 2-Kyle Busch, 3-Christopher Bell, 4-Larson, 5-Ross Chastain.
Last week’s Old Guy Sport picks: No picks, race at Daytona. OGS does not count races at superspeedways (Daytona, Atlanta and Talladega) in its standings.
OGS competition index top 10 after 21 races: 1-Hamlin 470, 2-Larson 366, 3-Briscoe 328, 4-William Byron 326, Bell 326, 6-Shane van Gisbergen 295, 7-Blaney 293, 8-Bubba Wallace 160, 9-Alex Bowman 158, 10-Chase Elliott 147.
OGS competition index top 10 on intermediate tracks (tracks most like Darlington) 1-Hamlin 239, 2-Larson 229, 3-Blaney 199, 4-Byron 186, 5-Briscoe 157, 6-Wallace 117, 7-Chastain 102, 8-Logano 79, 9-Bell 71, 10-Bowman 64, Chris Buescher 64.
by Patrick Zier | Aug 22, 2025 |
If you had to use one word to describe Lee Roy Selmon, that word would be “genuine.” No matter the circumstances, no matter how bright the spotlight, Selmon always was who he was. There was no pretense about him.
It is a cliche, but Selmon was larger than life. Although he was exceptional in many ways, it was how he presented himself, how he was able to direct attention away from himself to others, that set him apart.
We were reminded of that again this month when the University of South Florida decided to remember him by giving his number to the defensive lineman who best exemplified his personal and physical attributes.
“This will be a great way to carry on the legacy of Lee Roy Selmon,” USF Coach Alex Golesh commented according to the school’s football website. “It’s really a neat deal for USF. The number 63 will signify someone who has worked and shown a level of integrity, athletic ability and academic excellence, all the traits I’ve heard about since I’ve got here that defined Lee Roy Selmon,” Golesh said.
Selmon, of course, had a major impact on South Florida football. He was hired by then athletic director Paul Griffin in 1993 primarily to get the program started and helped guide it through its formative years.
Selmon worked with Jim Leavitt, USF’s first – and most successful – coach, and because he was extremely influential in the Tampa Bay community, he became the driving force behind the effort to get the first football facilities built.
When Leavitt took the job, South Florida had nothing. No offices. No locker room. Not even a practice field. Leavitt, in fact, found a goal post under the soccer stadium grandstand and had it set up so the team could work out.
Leavitt’s office was a cramped trailer that had two partitions, one for him and one for his receptionist. This was a program that literally had to be built from the ground up, and without Selmon, it would have been much more difficult. In many ways, Selmon was the glue that held things together.
In 2001 though, things started to unravel. First, Griffin was fired after covering up a complaint of racial bias made against USF’s women’s basketball coach.
That led to Selmon being elevated to athletic director, a move that gave South Florida football immediate credibility. Selmon was tremendously respected in both the collegiate and pro football community, and we can only speculate on how that would have impacted USF had he continued on in the job.
For one thing, Selmon’s approach was almost the direct opposite of Griffin’s.
Griffin was a dynamo, pushing the athletic department to expand at a rapid pace. Perhaps because of his experience at the highest level of collegiate football; Selmon played at Oklahoma and was on two national championship teams there, he understood what was needed to compete. And he saw first hand how difficult it was to build something from nothing when he was with the Bucs.
So, Selmon was more conservative than Griffin. He wanted the program to move forward; on Selmon’s watch, USF jumped first to Conference USA and then to the Big East, but he wanted to make sure USF was ready to make the move when it happened.
And then there was the dismissal of Leavitt. Selmon wasn’t directly involved in this, he retired at the end of 2004 for undisclosed health reasons, but there is no question that had he still been in charge it might never have happened.
Selmon was succeeded as AD by Doug Woolard, who had nominal control of the football program. However, after taking the team to three straight bowls in 2005, 2006 and 2007 plus starting out 6-0 with wins over nationally ranked Auburn and West Virginia and being voted No. 2 in the polls that same year, Leavitt had the bit in his teeth.
This was his program and he would run it his way. He was in charge. That changed in 2009, when Leavitt grabbed a USF player by the throat and slapped him at halftime during a game with Louisville. The school investigated, Leavitt tried to interfere with the investigation and he was fired. That sent USF into a mire of mediocrity from which it hasn’t yet recovered.
Had Selmon still been at USF, none of this might have happened. Woolard couldn’t control Leavitt; Selmon could. Like everyone else, Leavitt deferred to Selmon. Selmon’s quiet demeanor gave him an aura of authority that commanded respect. Leavitt would have coached the team but Selmon would have been in charge of the program.
Where ever he has been, Selmon made his mark in his own, unique way. What ever he did, whether it was playing football, working in the community or advocating for a cause, nobody did it better. And as USF – and others – have found out, you can get some one to take his place, but you can’t replace him.
by Patrick Zier | Aug 20, 2025 |
It wasn’t always like this. Richard Childress Racing wasn’t always scrambling to win a race here and there, wasn’t always living more on its reputation than its performance.
Back then, Dale Earnhardt made a difference. He was larger than life during his time at RCR with his 67 wins, six championships and get-the-hell-out-of-my-way driving style. If Earnhardt’s iconic black No. 3 wasn’t feared when it took to the track, it was darn well respected.
But those days are long gone, and so is Earnhardt and so is the competitiveness that separated RCR from the pack. Now, it’s part of the pack, struggling to break out, to regain its identity. For the most part, it hasn’t been successful, and despite Austin Dillon’s win at Richmond last week, the road ahead doesn’t look any easier.
It’s a team trapped in the past, haunted by Earnhardt’s ghost. The gap between RCR and NASCAR’s big three, Joe Gibbs Racing, Hendrick and Penske, is not narrowing and looks to be getting wider. Childress keeps shuffling the pieces but they are basically the same pieces that didn’t work before and rearranging them isn’t going to make them work now.
There is a saying in NASCAR to the effect that if you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse. That simply means that if you’re content to keep on doing the things that are working for you now, you’re not improving and others will pass you.
That seems to be what’s happened at RCR. Kevin Harvick, who took over as RCR’s lead driver following the death of Earnhardt, won 23 races in 13 years there. Harvick kept the team from collapsing, but it fell behind the big three.
When Harvick left RCR to join Stewart-Haas in 2014. his career took off. At the time, led by Stewart and his crew chief, Greg Zipadelli, S-H ranked with Gibbs, Hendrick and Penske as one of NASCAR’s Power 4.
Unlike RCR, it was innovative and aggressive and with S-H backing, Harvick became one of the top competitors in the sport, something that never would have happened had he stayed at RCR. Over his 10 years with S-H, he won 37 races and a championship.
RCR, meanwhile, became mired in mediocrity, stuck in the past. It became very much an ingrown operation, with Childress bringing in his grandson, Dillon, as the lead driver because the couldn’t get anybody else. Although he had been successful at lower levels, hiring Dillon further tarnished RCR’s image.
“Austin has earned his way from the time we put him in a Bandolero car,” Childress said as reported on NASCAR’s media site after the Richmond race. “I said you guys (Austin and his brother Ty Dillon) have to earn your way.
“He (Austin) went out and won a truck championship. He went out and won an xfinity championship. He’s won races in everything he’s ever driven,” Childress declared.
And to be fair, Dillon has won six races at RCR. While that doesn’t compare with NASCAR’s big boys, it’s a solid number for a tier two team, and RCR is now a tier two team.
At that level only Kyle Busch with 63 wins, Brad Keselowski with 36 and Tyler Reddick with eight have more among current drivers, and 60 of Busch’s wins came when he was with two of the top teams in the sport, four with Hendrick and 56 with Gibbs.
Keselowski has a similar record, with 34 of his 36 coming when he was with Penske.
Only Reddick, who drove briefly for Childress before jumping to the up-and-coming 23XI team, has all his wins at a tier two level. So, if you subtract Busch and Keselowski’s wins with elite teams, Reddick has the most in tier two with eight and Dillon is next with six. Busch would have three and Keselowski 2.
This, though, only masks how bad things have gotten at RCR. Even with Busch as its lead driver; he came on board in 2023 after he couldn’t work out a new contract with Gibbs, RCR has yet to get a handle on NASCAR’s Next Gen car, which debuted in 2022.
Busch won three races for RCR in 2023 but is currently on an 82 race winless streak. He’s 40, and his best years are behind him, but put him in a winning car and he can still win; RCR just doesn’t build winning cars.
The Old Guy Sport competition index, which measures competitiveness on the track as opposed to the NASCAR point system which is based on simply finishing races, shows how far RCR has fallen.
Disregarding superspeedway races (Atlanta, Daytona and Talladega), which tell you nothing about the driver or the team because avoiding the big wreck and being in the right lane at the right time determine the winner, Dillon currently has 64 points in the OGS competition index, and 63 came in the Richmond race.
Busch has only 38 points and has been competitive in only two races, both road courses. Truth be told, Busch would probably love to go to a better team to finish his career, but there’s nothing else available.
“We talk about it (getting better), get the key people together, talk about what we need to do to make our company better, make the cars better,” Childress said.
“These guys have stepped up to the plate; everybody, John, I call him John K Klausmeier (RCR’s technical director)- I think that’s his last name, he’s doing the job for us. Chevy has a tech center, we’re working there. Effort is being put in for sure to change it and turn things around,” Childress declared.
Still, when the team owner isn’t sure of the technical director’s last name., you’ve got a problem. When you talk about changes but don’t really change anything, you’ve got a problem. When you’re putting in effort but you don’t know what you should be working on, you’ve got a problem.
RCR’s people may be stepping up to the plate, but they’re striking out. And RCR is not going to get better unless it brings in better people who have a better idea of what you need to do to win today. Because what worked for Dale Earnhardt won’t work now.
NASCAR NOTES
No race this week. Old Guy Sport does not count superspeedway races (Atlanta, Daytona, Talledega) because winning at those tracks is almost entirely dependent on luck and has little to do with how the driver or the team performs.
Last week’s OGS Richmond picks: 1-Chase Briscoe, 2-Denny Hamlin, 3-Kyle Larson. Richmond winner: Austin Dillon. OGS season record: 10-10.
OGS competition index top 10 after 21 races: 1-Hamlin 470 points, 2-Larson 366, 3-Briscoe 328, 4-William Byron 326, Christopher Bell 326, 6-Shane van Gisbergen 295, 7-Ryan Blaney 293, 8-Bubba Wallace 160, 9-Alex Bowman 158, 10-
Chase Elliott 147.
